Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan

We explore the labor supply effect of the social security earnings test in Japan on those aged 65–69 years through a combined examination of the elimination of the earnings test in 1985 and its reinstatement in 2002. We present evidence showing that the effects of changes in the earnings tests on the labor supply of the elderly are not symmetric, controlling for changes in the attributes of workers and firms. The repeal of the earnings test in 1985 did affect the earnings distribution of the elderly (especially for male), while its reinstatement in 2002 did not alter the earnings distribution.     

Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails

This paper motivates the importance of modeling nonlinearities in measuring systemic risk. I capitalize this motivation by generalizing the CoVaR approach proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) to allow it switching between a high and a normal risk regime filtered from data.. Considering the U.S. large bank holding companies (BHCs), this paper shows that modeling regime changes in tails is capable of capturing both amplification and mean-reversion effects of an adverse shock to a bank's balance sheet on the banking system. Using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics with and without bootstrapping, I perform the significance test to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), and the stochastic dominance test to rank the identified SIFIs. The stochastic dominance test raises the concern that the CoVaR measure underestimates systemic risk contributions for SIFIs but overestimates for non-SIFIs. Finally, applying the BHCs' characteristics and housing market price to forecast the regime-switching systemic risk out-of-sample, I obtain from 4- and 8-quarter-ahead horizons a desirable countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk.     

TEM4改革前后完形填空的考点效度对比分析

2005年以来英语专业四级考试完形填空试题的考点效度比以前有所提高,但句子层次考点数量仍然偏高。教师在教学过程中应注重培养学生的语篇理解能力和逻辑分析能力,提高学生的语言综合运用能力。     

生物工程大实验课程改革与探讨

生物工程大实验是生物工程专业的一门重要的综合性实验课程,就当前生物工程大实验教学存在的几点问题,从实验内容、实验体系、实验方法、考核方式方面对生物工程大实验进行改革与探讨。     

从某一微车气囊设计探讨安全气囊标定技术

文章以某一微车安全气囊设计为基础,详细阐述汽车设计中气囊标定整车碰撞试验矩阵确定的依据、气囊标定对车辆状态的要求及气囊标定核心——点火控制的原理,从而得出准确的标定报告,以指导设计生产。     

我国居民消费与经济增长的实证分析

消费对经济增长具有重大作用,居民消费作为消费需求的主体,其重要性更不能忽视。在面临金融危机的背景下,我国急需将经济增长从投资、出口转变为消费、投资、出口协调拉动。通过对1978——2008年的年度数据,对居民消费和经济增长进行实证分析,得出两者具有长期均衡关系,两者为双向的格兰杰因果关系;通过建立误差修正模型,得出两者短期之间的动态关系。最后,针对扩大内需提出四点建议。     

The tactical and strategic value of hedge fund strategies: a cointegration approach

This paper analyzes long-term comovements between hedge fund strategies and traditional asset classes using multivariate cointegration methodology. Since cointegrated assets are tied together over the long run, a portfolio consisting of these assets will have lower long-term volatility. Thus, if the presence of cointegration lowers uncertainty, risk-averse investors should prefer assets that are cointegrated. Long-term (passive) investors can benefit from the knowledge of cointegrating relationships, while the built-in error correction mechanism allows active asset managers to anticipate short-run price movements. The empirical results indicate there is a long-run relationship between specific hedge fund strategies and traditional financial assets. Thus, the benefits of different hedge fund strategies are much less than suggested by correlation analysis and portfolio optimization. However, certain strategies combined with specific stock market segments offer portfolio managers adequate diversification potential, especially in the framework of tactical asset allocation.

我国农用化肥施用的影响因素——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

我国农用化肥施用量不断提高带来的环境污染问题日益严重。研究化肥施用的影响因素及其影响程度,为防止化肥滥施、保护生态环境提供依据意义重大。文章采用1999～2008年我国31个省(市、区)的面板数据,通过面板单位根检验、协整关系检验和多元回归方法分别对国内东、中、西三大区域化肥施用密度与其影响因素之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,三大区域农民人均纯收入、人口规模对化肥施用密度具有显著的正向影响,三大区域化肥价格增长率、粮食种植面积比重、化肥产出效率对化肥施用密度具有显著的负向影响,三大区域种植产品生产价格、种植业劳动力数量、农产品国际贸易对化肥施用密度具有不同的影响效果或显著性。     

产业结构高级化与经济增长关系实证研究——基于全国、广东省及广州市数据的对比分析

本文构造了一种能有效度量产业结构高级化的指标,并运用它对全国、广东省及广州市1978-2009年产业结构高级化与经济增长的关系进行了分析。结果发现,研究期间三个层次的产业结构高级化水平都得到了极大的提高,也表现出了相同的趋势、特征与路径。从全国到东部发达省份再到东部中心城市,经济增长对产业结构高级化都有推动作用,而产业升级对经济增长的促进作用则只出现在中心城市这一层。